Understanding the economic impact on health, livelihoods, and trade
From a food safety standpoint, consumers in developing countries are more vulnerable compared to their developed country counterparts. This is because developing country consumers are not only by and large malnourished but also chronically exposed to high levels of aflatoxin in their diet. Reported results of excess aflatoxin consumption range from deaths, to severe toxicoses to various cancers to diseases of malnutrition; the last is found particularly among children (Wu 2004). The reduction in livelihoods from lower livestock production reinforces the conditions conducive to poor human health (Miller and Marasas 2002).
Smallholders, particularly crop-livestock farmers and landless livestock keepers who depend on livestock for livelihoods and require safe sources of feed, are especially vulnerable to aflatoxin contamination as well. Economic losses that result from aflatoxins may affect livestock farmers through animals’ reduced productivity, increased incidence of disease, damage to organs, interference with reproductive capacity, and death. Furthermore, aflatoxin contamination affects market access for other stakeholders – crop producers, processors, feed manufacturers and consumers – in the maize and groundnut value chains through price reductions for contaminated grains, loss of business, product recall, and product liability, to name a few.
- Value chain analysis and network mapping to (i) identify the key stakeholders in the value chain network; (ii) understand their roles with respect to management of aflatoxin contamination risk (iii) losses in the value (price) of maize and groundnut through the chain due to aflatoxin contamination and a brief on methodological approach used in the network mapping exercise.
- Quantitative and qualitative data collection methods to understand the (i) role of grains groundnuts and maize in household livelihoods (ii) the impacts of aflatoxin contamination on households' livelihoods and a brief on methodological approach both the qualitative and quantitative analysis used to capture the impact of aflatoxin on livelihoods
- Qualitative and quantitative data analysis and modeling
- Knowledge of the value chain networks and an understanding of the economic losses due to aflatoxin contamination and if and how these losses accelerate throughout the chain available to other scientists, Ministries of Agriculture and Health and AGRA;
- Policy makers use the results to minimize the negative impacts of aflatoxin contamination to rural poor livelihoods
The conventional method to estimate the cost of imposing any trade barrier (such as stringent aflatoxin standards) is to include these restrictions as explanatory variables in a trade model. A standard model of trade then estimates bilateral trade flows as a function of trade restrictions, the economic size and factors that hinder trade such as distance. In the most standard trade models there have been no prediction of zero trade.
- Empirical estimation of trade relationships that capture the effect of aflatoxin contamination including the effect in terms of missing trade. A table of results of expected economic loss from adverse health effects, with appropriate sensitivity analyses and a brief on the methodology used to capture the impact of aflatoxin on trade.
- Develop estimates of counterfactual trade for different level of standards related to aflatoxin.
- Data collection (in addition to prevalence data collection in objective 2) to facilitate the analysis of the impact of aflatoxin on public health
- Develop estimates of counterfactual trade for different level of standards related to aflatoxin
Every year, several hundreds of sub-Saharan Africans die of acute aflatoxicosis, a disease of liver failure associated with consuming extremely high levels of aflatoxin. Far more Africans, however, suffer chronic diseases associated with lower levels of aflatoxin consumption in maize and groundnuts.
It is difficult to quantify the economic impact of aflatoxin on human health. Currently producer financial losses associated with Aflatoxins are low because all grains and groundnuts tend to be consumed, rather than removed from the value chain. In health economic DALYs are used so as to facilitate the comparison of economic risks and cost-effectiveness of various forms of interventions and currently this approach is the best measure available for quantifying health benefits in terms of: 1) reduced liver cancer cases, 2) improved immunity, and 3) improved growth in children. If numbers to quantify losses are estimated, it is possible that standards would more likely be enforced and would provide crucial advocacy benefits including improved health for the poor.
- Estimate exposure and health effects based on aflatoxin concentrations in food, estimated daily intake, cancer potency factors, and HBV/HCV prevalence
- Calculate an overall estimated cost for human health and mortality from aflatoxin consumption and run a sensitivity analyses to determine what data point is driving results
- Knowledge of economic impact of aflatoxin consumption on human health
- Results used by stakeholders (Ministries of Agriculture and Health and AGRA) to promote the need for aflatoxin reduction in the value chain
- Buy in of the policy makers to minimize the negative impacts of aflatoxin contamination on the health of the poor
- Results used by stakeholders (Ministries of Agriculture and Health and AGRA); to promote the need for aflatoxin reduction in the value chain