From tomatoes to wheat, Indian crop forecasting is in the grip of a Raja Todar Mal problem (The Print) 

The Print (India) published an article saying that India’s U-turn on wheat exports is a result of incorrect estimates derived from an archaic crop forecasting system devised 4 centuries ago by Emperor Akbar’s finance minister. India has an urgent need to clean its data systems in agriculture.  The final production estimates for wheat harvested in April-May this year will be released in February 2023, a little too late for food management and trade policy decisions. Research fellow Avinash Kishore said, “The advance estimates of crop production can at best provide a signal. We function with the belief that random errors will cancel each other out at an aggregate level.”  He added, “Our entire data system is designed for grains, although in value terms horticulture, milk and livestock have far surpassed foodgrains. Yet, data gathering on these is horribly poor.” Kishore cited several examples of non-existent or poor-quality data. “We have no reliable data on value chains or how much food is wasted during transit, at warehouses, or on the neighborhood vendor’s push-cart. When a banana is over-ripe, it is sold for a lower price. The loss of value there is larger than the quantity loss,” Kishore said. “To become the export powerhouse India desires to be, it needs to pay attention to these data gaps.”